The development of new approaches, especially with respect to management processes, and the consideration of uncertainties in combination with modeling and simulation of construction processes, offer a high potential for quantitative research.

A contribution to the systematic evaluation of the failure probability of retaining walls in the alpine region

SANDER P., MARCHER T.: A contribution to the systematic evaluation of the failure probability of retaining walls in the alpine region. University of the Bundeswehr Munich and Graz University of Technology (2020)


Risk Management for Building Projects (German)

Recommendations of the Professional Group Built Environment (RICS Germany)


Risikomanagement am Bau - Diskussionspapier RICS Professional Group Built Environment.pdf

Bachelor Thesis Supervision: "Cost transparency in megaprojects through the use of probabilistic risk analyses "

Romed Jenewein, Bachelor Thesis, Universität Innsbruck, November 2018

The advantage of a probabilistic risk analysis over deterministic standard procedures is the significantly higher information. A better overview of the risk potential and its effects on the costs and construction time is possible by means of a distribution function with under- or overrun probabilities.

On the basis of this thesis it should be shown which possibilities a probabilistic risk analysis with RIAAT offers and which added value can be won for megaprojects.


Master Thesis Supervision: "Project Cost Control for Construction Projects"

Petra Lintner, Master Thesis University Innsbruck, November 2016

Especially for large scale projects, an integrated construction cost management throughout all project phases is crucial for the financial success of a project. Thereby, the importance of project cost controlling is increasing continuously. This master thesis focuses on the development of a process structure applicable for project cost controlling of construction projects. This process structure, called “PKC-System,” is planned to be a generic instruction for periodic updates of relevant project cost management data. In accordance with the ÖGG-Richtlinie Kostenermittlung für Projekte der Verkehrsinfrastruktur (2016), the developed concept splits up the total costs into base costs, risk costs and valorisation.

Projektkostencontrolling in der Bauprojektabwickung_Petra Lintner.pdf

Master Thesis Supervision: "Fault Tree Analysis - Application Potential in the Infrastructure Sector"

Johannes Bereuter, Master Thesis University Innsbruck, December 2014

Within the scope of this thesis, a procedure will be developed that allows a more precise analysis of the construction stages in the field of infrastructure. This shall be done by means of fault tree analysis by which the reliability of the overall system as well as of its individual subsystems will be determined. The aim of the thesis is to examine whether a project that is carried out in the field of infrastructure can be visualized and calculated with fault tree analysis.


Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Construction Projects - Development of a Demand-Oriented Risk-Analysis System Supported by Software

Sander, P., Dissertation University Innsbruck, 2012

Publisher: Innsbruck University Press • iup, 2012, 208 pages

Language: German

ISBN: 978-3-902811-75-2

Price: 29.90 Euro

So far, an elaborated system for the application of probabilistic methods of analysis for the construction industry has been non-existent. The software found on the market, too, is partially suited to the specific problems of the construction industry. Contractors or customers usually have to rely on themselves if they want to successfully put the theory into practice. In addition, the mathematical requirements make a probabilistic approach difficult to implement without assistance by suitable software and clear structuring.

With the RIAAT (Risk Administration and Analysis Tool) software, a risk analysis tool is being developed that is specifically tailored to the requirements of construction projects. For implementation, fundamental probabilistic concepts are examined for usability and adapted as required. For example, a core topic is the selection of the most suitable simulation procedure through which the risks modelled by distributions are aggregated. Specifically, Latin Hypercube Sampling offers advantages as compared to a standard Monte Carlo simulation since the results converge towards the proper analytic result faster and in fewer iterations.

The concept around RIAAT includes a standardized valuation system, which – on a probabilistic basis – provides specific procedures supporting the user in modelling the risk scenarios.

  • selection of suitable pre-defined probability distributions, combined with the option to model distributions individually

  • detailed assessment of risks according to calculation procedure (own distributions can be defined for the factors bulk and price)

  • setting of correlations, which enables risks to be modelled with better proximity to reality

  • handling of multiple risks

  • processing of event tree analyses

From a programmer's point of view, RIAAT is a .NET implementation as a separate application, which ensures universal applicability on Windows systems.

RIAAT enables unrestricted working with probabilistic methods for risk analyses and cost assessments. In this way, the advantages of probabilistic methods are also accessible to construction projects.

Probabilistische Risiko-Analyse für Bauprojekte_Buch_F03.pdf

Extension of the Risk Administration and Analysis Tool (RIAAT)


The planned extensions include segments risk management, project controlling and project calculation. The extensions will also create a product that no longer depends on other programs (e.g., MS Excel).

Planned modular extensions:

• Cost flows in annual slices

• Probabilistic calculation

• Probabilistic evaluation of the construction time

• Extended methods for Risk Analyses

Research Project MEFISTO /Associated Partnership

Mefisto is a leading project of "Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung" (BMBF in Germany) in the research program "IKT 2020 – Softwaresysteme und Wissenstechnologien." MEFISTO (AP 08) is concerned with methods to control construction processes and simulations as well as predictions. This also includes risk management. In cooperation with "Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung," Berlin.

Master Thesis Supervision: "Application and Benefits of Risk Analysis for Large Projects"

Matthias Rungger, Master Thesis University Innsbruck, 2010

The thesis deals with the application of different methods of risk analysis that are used for large construction projects. The aim of the work is to detect benefits and disadvantages of each method as well as to determine their specific applications.